What’s Next for BTC After Breaking Above $104K?

Bitcoin kicked off the second week of May with a powerful continuation move, breaking through key resistance levels and climbing to fresh local highs. While the rally has been rapid, and the current technical signals suggest there’s still gas left in the tank, caution is still warranted.

The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, BTC has pushed decisively above the $100K resistance and is now hovering around the $104K mark. This breakout marks a clear escape from the month-long compression between the rising trendline and the 100 and 200-day moving averages.

The price has reclaimed both the moving averages around the $90K price level, and the RSI is holding above 70, indicating strong momentum. However, it also points to slightly overbought conditions. If the buyers maintain pressure and avoid sharp rejections, a run toward a new all-time high is likely.

The 4-Hour Chart

Zooming into the 4H chart, the breakout becomes even clearer. BTC exited an ascending channel pattern to the upside, rallying through the previous key supply zone around $98K with almost no resistance. Since then, the asset has been grinding higher in an orderly fashion, supported by the RSI cooling off.

The latest price action shows signs of slowing momentum, but there’s no reversal confirmation yet. A healthy pullback into the $100K–$98K range would be a logical area to look for continuation setups if the buyers remain in control. However, if that level fails, support at $94K could catch the next wave of bids.

Onchain Analysis

Miner Reserve

On-chain data reveals a persistent downtrend in the Bitcoin Miner Reserve, which has now dropped to around 1.8M BTC, the lowest in recent years. This suggests that miners are not accumulating, but rather continuing a long-term distribution pattern. Instead of increasing their holdings during this rally, they appear to be gradually offloading BTC, possibly to capitalize on higher prices or manage operational costs post-halving.

While this doesn’t necessarily signal aggressive selling, it does indicate that miners are not contributing to long-term supply tightening at the moment. Their lack of accumulation, in contrast to strong spot buying, reinforces the idea that current demand is being driven by other market participants, such as institutions and retail investors.